Based on a greater decline in demand than predicted in the first quarter and concerns that tablets and 2-in-1s will face additional market challenges the rest of the year, research company International Data Corporation (IDC) has lowered its 2014 worldwide tablet plus 2-in-1 forecast to 245.4 million units, down from the previous forecast of 260.9 million units.
The new forecast recently presented by IDC represents a 12.1% year-over-year growth rate, which is notably lower than the 51.8% year-over-year growth of 2013.
“Two major issues are causing the tablet market to slow down. First, consumers are keeping their tablets, especially higher-cost models from major vendors, far longer than originally anticipated. And when they do buy a new one they are often passing their existing tablet off to another member of the family,” said Tom Mainelli, Program Vice President, Devices & Displays at IDC. “Second, the rise of phablets – smartphones with 5.5-inch and larger screens – are causing many people to second-guess tablet purchases as the larger screens on these phones are often adequate for tasks once reserved for tablets.”
Total Tablet Market Forecast, 2013 – 2018
Screen Size Band | |||
| Year | 7 < 8 | 8 < 11 | 11+ |
| 2013 Actual | 55.0% | 44.1% | 0.9% |
| 2014 Forecast | 50.8% | 47.3% | 1.9% |
| 2018 Forecast | 44.5% | 48.9% | 6.6%
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In the past year alone, the phablet share of smartphone shipments has more than doubled, from 4.3% in the first quarter of 2013 to 10.5% in the first quarter of this year, representing 30.1 million units shipped. As large phones clearly impact near-term tablet growth, IDC expects the market to rebound by shifting its focus back toward larger-screened devices. Products with larger screens–like Microsoft’s new 2-in-1, the 12-inch Surface Pro 3— are expected to play a greater role in the market going forward.
“The shift back toward larger screens will mark a welcome sea change for most vendors as the average selling price for these devices will remain roughly 50 percent higher than the average sub-8-inch device,” said Jitesh Ubrani, Research Analyst, Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker. “Microsoft is also expected to benefit from this shift as the share for Windows-based devices is expected to double between now and 2018.”
